How student attainment in maths has weathered the COVID storm: lessons from TIMSS 2023

England’s TIMSS maths scores at Year 5 and Year 9 are a cause for celebration

Charlie Stripp, NCETM Director, illustrates how England has weathered the COVID storm more effectively than other comparable countries.

The 2023 TIMSS results for maths, published last week, deserve more recognition than they’ve had from the press. In the previous TIMSS cycle, back in 2019, maths results showed significant uplift at Year 5 (8-9 year olds) and stable performance at Year 9 (13-14 year olds). At the time, pre-Covid, I was optimistic that in TIMSS 2023 we might have further improvement in Year 5, and a significant boost for Year 9. Then Covid intervened...

Given the serious disruption to our education system caused by the Covid pandemic, I had been anticipating the TIMSS 2023 results with some trepidation, so I was delighted to see how strong they were. At Year 5, the gains from 2019 have been maintained and at Year 9 there is a notable increase. This is fantastic news, and contrasts with many other countries, including Singapore (which consistently scores at the highest level in international comparisons) and the United States, as Figure 1 shows (click/tap to enlarge). In 2023 England’s TIMSS score for 13-14 year olds increased from 515 to 525, whilst the U.S. 13-14 year olds TIMSS score fell from 515 (the same as England in 2019) to 488.

Figure 1: TIMSS scores in the US, England and Singapore (Source: TIMSS 2023)

England’s maths education performance has held up well, despite the challenge of Covid. This is testament to the dedication of teachers of maths in England’s primary and secondary schools. I’m confident that the support for maths education provided through the NCETM and the Maths Hubs has contributed to this success.

Recovering from COVID has been positive, but the path to recovery remains uneven

Jen Shearman, NCETM Director for Evaluation and Impact, analyses England’s results in more detail. There is both cause for some celebration and an opportunity to dig deeper into these results to inform future improvements

I agree with Charlie, there are positive signs that the mathematical attainment of England’s Year 5 and Year 9 students is recovering well from the effects of a two-year global pandemic. The fact that this recovery was not globally observed suggests that the pedagogical, leadership and organisational choices made by teachers, schools and policymakers in England during and after the Covid era were successful in minimising the negative effects of this huge disruption.

Year 9

Our Year 9 students increased their attainment in maths compared to 2019

In Year 9 the 2023 TIMSS score was 525, higher (albeit not statistically significantly) than in 2019 when the score was 515 (see Figure 3 on page 10 of UCL’s research report - click/tap to enlarge). England, ranking 6th globally, is now the highest-performing country in mathematics outside East Asia. 

Performance at the highest level increased the most: our lowest prior attainers continue to find maths challenging

15% of English Year 9 students reached the highest international benchmark, an increase of 4% from 2019 and more than double the international median of 7% (see an extract from Figure 4 taken from page 11 of the report - click/tap to enlarge). According to TIMSS, this means these students can ‘extend their understanding beyond integers alone to solve a variety of problems in novel contexts’.

However, we must also note that 11% of students scored below the lowest benchmark, an increase of 1% from 2019. Students not meeting this benchmark have not demonstrated ‘knowledge of integers, basic shapes, and visual representations.’

This increased attainment in the higher end combined with a decrease in the lower end means that the range of attainment in Year 9 has increased and is bigger than most countries with comparable average attainment (see Figure 21 taken from page 68 - click/tap to enlarge).

Year 9 students scored higher on questions testing mathematical knowledge and application, but lower in reasoning questions

Across the cognitive domains, English students scored 3 points higher in questions in the ‘knowing’ domain, 5 points higher in the ‘applying’ domain and 9 points lower in the ‘reasoning domain’ than their average mathematics performance.

Year 9 students in England scored higher in questions testing number (+8) and data (+12) topics than they scored in algebra (-12) and geometry (-6).

Girls’ attainment in Year 9 is significantly less than boys

On average, girls scored 26 fewer points in the test than boys in England, the biggest difference across all 40 countries where gender difference was measured. Whilst the global statistics indicated that boys, on average, scored 6 points higher than girls, 21 countries reported either a positive difference in favour of girls’ attainment or no significant gender gaps.

Year 5

Our Year 5 pupils continue to perform highly internationally in mathematics

In Year 5 the 2023 TIMSS score was 552, not significantly lower than in 2019 when the score was 556. Most of the highest performing countries, notably Singapore, reported a drop in attainment since 2019. England is the second-ranked country outside of East Asia.

Like in Year 9, England’s higher performing Year 5s continue to succeed whilst our lowest performing pupils continue to find maths challenging

22% of English Year 5 pupils reached the highest international benchmark, an increase of 1% from 2019 and compared to an international median of 7% (see an extract from Figure 2 taken from page 8 of the report - click/tap to enlarge). This means that our highest attaining pupils can ‘select and relate information to implement appropriate operations to solve problems.’

Like in Year 9, there is evidence that the lowest attaining pupils in England have been affected most by the pandemic. 6% of Year 5 pupils scored below the lowest benchmark, an increase of 2%. This means our lowest attainers cannot yet ‘demonstrate basic mathematical understanding’.

England has a wider range of attainment in Year 5 compared to other countries, and the range of attainment in Year 5 increased in 2023 (see Figure 14 taken from page 53 of the report - click/tap to enlarge).

Year 5 pupils performed best in the data content domain and worst in the geometry domain

Unlike other high performing countries, Year 5 pupils in England performed most strongly in the questions testing the data content domain (+9 points on average). However, pupils were weakest in measurement and geometry (-13 points on average). Year 5 pupils scored higher on questions related to the knowing cognitive domain (+6) than the applying (-2) or reasoning (-2) domain.

Year 5 girls also perform less well than Year 5 boys

England has a gender gap of 18 points and is the 12th-worst ranked country. 18 countries had a non-significant gender gap or reported higher girls’ attainment.

So, what next for the NCETM and the Maths Hubs?

Given the international pandemic, overall numbers are very encouraging and reflect the effort of teachers, leaders and organisations to limit the negative effects of two years of severe disruption of the mathematical learning of students in England.

We are pleased that the UCL report acknowledges that the ‘mastery-based approach promoted by the NCETM and the Maths Hubs in England since 2014’ has been ‘accompanied by significant increases in TIMSS performance in both year 5 and year 9’ (page 137).

(We agree with the report’s authors that occurrence is not the same as causation).

The report highlights areas of teaching and learning in maths that the NCETM and the Maths Hubs Network must continue attend to.

Performance of girls

If England’s Year 9 girls had scored as highly as the boys in 2023 the TIMSS score would have been 538. This would have represented an increase of 23 points from 2019 and may have been statistically significant. In Year 5 our score would have been 561 and so would have represented an increase of 5 points from 2019 instead of a small decrease.

Whilst, according to a 2022 blog post by Sevilla and Cuevas-Ruiz that summarised the research into girls’ underachievement, some of this gap could perhaps be attributed to girls underperforming in high pressure environments, there are positive steps that maths teachers can take.

A UNESCO analysis of the 2019 TIMSS tests (which also indicated girls’ underperformance in maths) found that parents engage boys significantly more than girls in playing  with building blocks and construction toys. The report recommends more spatial play for girls and suggests that an early ability to understand problems relating to forms, shapes, and physical spaces can predict later competence in mathematics.

This recent blog post by Zunica and O’Connor which looked at the global average underachievement of girls in TIMSS suggests that an inclusive maths classroom which relentlessly pursues achievement and understanding for all students and promotes effort, perseverance and resilience, could stop gender gaps occurring. All students, including girls, need to ensure they know where there are making progress in mathematics and what the next coherent steps to their development are. The teaching for mastery principles of whole class teaching and a coherent curriculum that draws attention to the important conceptual steps that students need to proceed in their maths learning and understanding align perfectly with these recommendations.

Mathematical reasoning

We know that we need to improve students’ ability and confidence in mathematical reasoning, and this remains a tenet of teaching for mastery in both primary and secondary. Our work on improving oracy in mathematical classrooms is at the forefront of this.

Geometry

We do need to consider reasons for the reduced performance in geometry and measures questions in Year 5 and algebra questions in Year 9. We look forward to hearing the recommendations from the recent Curriculum and Assessment Review consultation and we would like to continue to build a coherent curriculum for mathematics that builds deep connected learning in all mathematical topics. 

Attainment range, particularly the ‘long tail’ in lower prior attainers

We must also pay attention to the widening of the range of attainment: whilst it is obviously pleasing to see more higher attaining students, teaching for mastery is about all students gaining a deep understanding of maths and closing those attainment gaps. We must prioritise those students who are still not able to attain highly in maths and aim to decrease this proportion in future. Our Securing Foundations in Year 7 programme is one such initiative aimed precisely at these students.

My own hunch (and it is just that) is that our three areas of underperformance: girls, geometry, and reasoning, have areas of overlap and intercorrelation, so interventions designed for one area may well have a positive effect on all three.

About TIMSS 2023

The Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) takes place every four years to provide participating countries with internationally comparable data on the performance and attitudes of 9 to 10 year olds (year 5 in England) and 13 to 14 year olds (Year 9 in England) in mathematics and science, together with comparisons of the curriculum and the teaching of these subjects in primary and secondary schools. In 2023 66 countries took part in TIMSS.

The 2024 report focuses on each country’s attainment internationally and compared to previous years. A report to be published in 2025 will report on students' attitudes, students’ perceptions of teaching, teachers’ education, experience and job satisfaction, headteachers’ and teachers’ views on school discipline and students’ reports on their home environment and resources.

References

von Davier, M., Kennedy, A., Reynolds, K., Fishbein, B., Khorramdel, L., Aldrich, C., Bookbinder, A., Bezirhan, U., & Yin, L. (2024). TIMSS 2023 International Results in Mathematics and Science. Boston College, TIMSS & PIRLS International Study Center. https://doi.org/10.6017/lse.tpisc.timss.rs6460

Golding, J, Richardson, M., Isaacs, T., Barnes, I. Wilkinson, D., Swensson, C. , Maris. R. (2024). Education Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) 2023: National report for England, DfE, available at: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6749d3f22ac8a6da30723aa2/TIMSS_2023_national_report_for_England.pdf (Accessed: December 2024)

Hencke, J., Eck, M. Sass, J., Hastedt, D., Meinck, S., Kennedy, A. Liu, T. (2023) Early learning activities matter for girls’ and boys’ mathematics and science achievement. UNESCO. Available at: https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000385717 (Accessed: December 2024)

Sevilla, A., Cuevas-Ruiz, P. (2022) How can we reduce gender gaps in mathematics education? EconomicsObservatory.com Available at: https://www.economicsobservatory.com/how-can-we-reduce-gender-gaps-in-mathematics-education (Accessed: December 2024)

Zunica, B. and O’Connor, B (2024) Why are boys outperforming girls in maths? TheConversation.com, available at: https://theconversation.com/why-are-boys-outperforming-girls-in-maths-245357 (Accessed: December 2024)